“Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.” - Goethe
[Copyright 2011 by Ng Wee Howe]
Huhu
Supply, Demand, Cost, Risk, Reward
To my future children:

Everything in this world can be derived from a few simple models. One of which is called the supply and demand.

When a lot of people is chasing the same thing, the cost (or the effort to put in) becomes higher, the reward becomes slimmer and the risk of failure becomes higher, vice versa.

A wise man must have the courage to stand against the herd, look for the intrinsic value, resist the psychological effect that makes you want to join, stays patient while others are losing their heads, do not envy, do not be greedy.

In the meantime, stay optimistic. There must be something the herd is not looking at. Find out the intrinsic value, buy it when the cost is low, value is high, reward is good, risk is small. You may not find a lot of these when the herd is at their most frenzy time. But you can get a lot of these when the herd is selling in sync.

Do not lower your standard when others are desperate.
Do not buy something just because the historical price is trending upwards.
Do not conclude you have a bargain buy just because one thing is cheaper than another.

Don't forget that not buying is also an option.

This applies to everything.
I see it in career path, I see it in investment, I see it in things, I see it in business.
I see it early in my life that makes me whom I became and the path I chose.

Lastly, do not believe or deny me just because that I can, or can't show you the rewards I gain from this belief.
You must run these in your head. Take your time to think of the reasons lying beneath.
It would only stick to your head and become part of you if you know the why's.

Have a good journey ahead.
脝陆戮虏
脛脟脨漏掳虏戮虏脭脛露脕碌脛脪鹿脥铆脠脙脦脪脛脺脦卢鲁脰脌铆脨脭隆拢
脣没脠脣脫煤路猫驴帽拢卢脳脭录潞碌脙脭陆鲁脕碌脙脳隆脝酶隆拢

鲁卤脝冒鲁卤脗盲拢卢脢卤麓煤脳脺脭脷卤盲脟篓隆拢
脪陋脭脷脗镁鲁陇碌脛脣锚脭脗脌茂脮戮碌脙脳隆陆脜拢卢虏禄陆枚脪陋脨脼脰陋脢露拢卢禄鹿碌脙脨脼脨脛隆拢

脰禄脫脨麓茂碌陆脨脛脠么脰鹿脣庐碌脛戮鲁陆莽拢卢脭脵赂麓脭脫碌脛脢脗脟茅虏脜脛脺脧毛碌脙脥赂鲁鹿隆拢
脛脟脨漏鹿脴脫脷路驴碌脴虏煤碌脛脢脗
脦脪碌脛鹿脹碌茫脢脟拢卢脭脷脌煤脢路脡脧脦脪脙脟脰庐脣霉脪脭禄谩脪禄麓脦脫脰脪禄麓脦碌脴脩颅禄路脥卢脩霉碌脛脜脻脛颅脫毛卤卢脕脩脳卯禄霉麓隆碌脛脭颅脪貌脢脟脭脷脫脷脦脪脙脟脣霉陆篓脕垄碌脛禄玫卤脪脧碌脥鲁隆拢脙驴赂枚鹿煤录脪碌脛禄玫卤脪露录脢脟脫脡脰脨脩毛脪酶脨脨路垄脨脨拢卢脰脨脩毛脪酶脨脨碌脛鹿陇脳梅戮脥脢脟戮枚露篓禄玫卤脪路垄脨脨碌脛脢媒脕驴隆拢禄玫卤脪路垄露脿脕脣拢卢戮脥禄谩脭矛鲁脡脨脜脫脙脜貌脮脥脫毛脥篓禄玫脜貌脮脥隆拢路麓脰庐拢卢禄玫卤脪脢脮陆么脕脣拢卢戮脥禄谩脭矛鲁脡脨脜脫脙脦庐脣玫隆拢

脳脭麓脫2008脛锚脪脭潞贸拢卢脥篓禄玫脦庐脣玫(Deflation)鲁脡脕脣虏禄脡脵戮颅录脙脤氓碌脛脦脢脤芒隆拢脦陋脕脣麓脤录陇戮颅录脙拢卢赂梅鹿煤露录脙娄脳脜脫隆鲁庐禄貌脫脰陆碌脧垄隆拢脢脗脢碌脡脧脣霉脦陆碌脛陆碌脧垄虏垄虏禄脰禄脢脟掳脩碌莽脛脭脪禄碌梅脣霉脫脨脪酶脨脨赂么脪鹿戮脥禄谩陆碌脧垄脛脟脙麓录貌碌楼隆拢脰脨脩毛脪酶脨脨脠么脪陋卤拢鲁脰脣霉脡猫露篓碌脛碌脥脌没脧垄拢卢露录禄谩脦脼脤玫录镁碌脴路垄路脜禄玫卤脪鹿潞脗貌脮镁赂庐脮庐戮毛拢卢掳脩脌没脧垄脩鹿碌脥脰脗脛驴卤锚脦陋脰鹿隆拢露酶路垄路脜禄玫卤脪脳脭脠禄露酶脠禄碌脴脭脷脪酶脨脨脌茂虏煤脡煤赂眉露脿碌脛麓忙驴卯拢卢赂眉露脿碌脛麓忙驴卯脫枚脡脧碌脥脌没脧垄戮脥禄谩虏煤脡煤赂眉露脿碌脛麓没驴卯隆拢

脢脗脢碌脡脧赂眉露脿碌脛麓没驴卯虏垄虏禄脢脟脪禄录镁禄碌脢脗拢卢脤脠脠么戮颅录脙脠脭脠禄卤拢鲁脰碌脥脙脭拢卢赂眉露脿碌脛麓没驴卯禄谩脠脙戮颅录脙脰脴脨脗禄卯脭戮脝冒脌麓拢卢虏垄路脟禄碌脢脗隆拢

2008脛锚脪脭潞贸拢卢脭脷脨铆露脿脩脟脰脼脨脗脨脣鹿煤录脪脌茂脣霉脛脺鹿脹虏矛碌陆碌脛脧脰脧贸脢脟脮芒脨漏麓没驴卯露录脙禄脫脨脠楼碌陆脢碌脤氓戮颅录脙脡脧拢篓卤脠脠莽脣碌脡脤脪碌麓没驴卯拢卢脰脝脭矛脪碌麓没驴卯碌脠碌脠...拢漏拢卢露酶脢脟脠楼脕脣脪禄赂枚路脟鲁拢脨猫脪陋麓没驴卯麓脤录陇碌脛脨脨脪碌拢卢脪虏戮脥脢脟路驴碌脴虏煤隆拢脭脷碌脥脌没脗脢脫毛麓忙驴卯鹿媒脢拢碌脛脟茅驴枚脧脗拢卢脪酶脨脨脠么脧毛脳卢脟庐戮脥卤脴脨毛掳脩脟庐陆猫鲁枚脠楼拢卢脠莽鹿没脡脤脠脣脙脟露录虏禄脌麓陆猫脟庐麓麓脪碌禄貌脌漏麓贸脢脗脪碌拢卢脛脟脪酶脨脨戮脥脰禄脫脨掳脩脟庐陆猫赂酶脕脣路驴碌脴虏煤脡脤脫毛鹿潞脗貌路驴脦脻脮脽隆拢

路驴碌脴虏煤脪禄驴陋脢录脡脧脦脗潞贸拢卢赂眉露脿碌脛路驴碌脴虏煤脡脤脫毛脥露脳脢脮脽戮脥驴陋脢录脫驴脠毛脢脨鲁隆隆拢脪酶脨脨碌脛麓没驴卯路垄路脜脫毛路驴碌脴虏煤碌脛禄冒脠脠驴陋脢录虏煤脡煤脪禄赂枚脩颅禄路隆拢赂梅鹿煤碌脛脰脨脩毛脪酶脨脨脪虏驴麓碌陆脕脣脮芒脪禄赂枚虏禄脩掳鲁拢碌脛脩颅禄路拢卢脣没脙脟路垄路脜禄玫卤脪脣霉脪陋麓茂碌陆碌脛脛驴碌脛脢脟脠脙禄玫卤脪脭脷脢碌脤氓戮颅录脙脡脧虏煤脡煤脨搂脪忙拢卢露酶路驴麓没碌脛路潞脌脛露脭脰脨脩毛脪酶脨脨脌麓脣碌脢脟脪禄赂枚路莽脧脮拢卢脪貌麓脣脦脪脙脟脛脺脳垄脪芒碌陆赂梅鹿煤脮镁赂庐脫毛脰脨脩毛脪酶脨脨露录录脌鲁枚脕脣潞脙录赂脗脰碌脛麓貌路驴脮镁虏脽隆拢
脦脪脙脟脦脼路篓脭陇虏芒碌陆陆芦脌麓禄谩路垄脡煤脢虏脙麓脢脗拢卢路驴碌脴虏煤戮驴戮鹿禄谩虏禄禄谩卤卢脕脩脠莽陆帽脠脭脠禄脰禄脢脟脪禄赂枚虏脗虏芒拢卢赂眉录赂潞玫鲁脡脦陋脠芦鲁脟碌脛脠脠脙脜禄掳脤芒隆拢

脦脪脭脷脮芒脌茂脪虏虏禄脧毛麓贸碌篓碌脴脭陇虏芒脦麓脌麓拢卢碌芦脦脪脛脺麓贸脭录脰赂脪媒麓贸录脪碌脛脣录驴录路陆脧貌隆拢
陆脫脧脗脌麓赂梅鹿煤碌脛脥篓脜貌陆芦禄谩脢脟脰脨脩毛脪酶脨脨碌脛碌录潞陆隆拢驴麓鹿媒脡脧脙忙碌脛脧脰脧贸潞贸拢卢脧毛卤脴赂梅脦禄露脕脮脽脪脩戮颅脛脺麓贸脭录虏脗虏芒碌陆脥篓脜貌碌脛脡脧脡媒禄谩露脭脮芒禄玫卤脪脫毛麓没驴卯碌脛禄路戮鲁脭矛鲁脡脢虏脙麓脩霉碌脛脫掳脧矛隆拢禄霉卤戮脡脧戮脥脢脟脤脠脠么脥篓脜貌鲁脰脨酶脡脧脡媒拢卢脰脨脩毛脪酶脨脨陆芦禄谩脤谩脧垄隆拢露酶脣霉脦陆碌脛脤谩脧垄戮脥脢脟录玫脡脵禄玫卤脪碌脛路垄脨脨拢卢脠莽鹿没禄鹿麓茂虏禄碌陆脛驴卤锚脌没脧垄拢卢卤茫碌脙麓脫脢脨鲁隆脰脨掳脩禄玫卤脪鲁茅禄脴脌麓隆拢禄玫卤脪碌脛录玫脡脵禄谩碌录脰脗麓忙驴卯碌脛录玫脡脵脭脵碌录脰脗麓没驴卯碌脛录玫脡脵拢卢脠莽麓脣脩颅禄路隆拢

脌煤脢路脡脧脦脪脙脟脪禄麓脦脫脰脪禄麓脦碌脴脭脷禄玫卤脪鲁卢路垄脧脗驴麓录没脨脜脫脙碌脛路潞脌脛拢卢脫脰脭脷禄玫卤脪碌脛脣玫陆么脰脨驴麓录没脜脻脛颅碌脛卤卢脕脩隆拢1988脛锚碌脛脠脮卤戮拢卢1997脛锚碌脛脩脟脰脼拢卢2008脛锚碌脛脙脌鹿煤拢卢2010脛锚碌脛脜路脰脼隆拢拢篓脣隆脦脪脩搂脪脮脦麓戮芦拢卢1988脛锚脰庐脟掳碌脛脌煤脢路脦脪禄鹿脦麓碌梅虏茅隆拢拢漏

脦脪脛脺脣碌碌脛脢脟拢卢脰禄脪陋脦脪脙脟脠脭脠禄脫脙脳脜脮芒脩霉碌脛禄玫卤脪脧碌脥鲁拢卢戮脥脣茫脭脷脪禄脟搂脛锚脪脭潞贸脦脪脙脟脠脭脠禄脛脺鹿脹虏矛碌陆脠莽麓脣脡煤脡煤虏禄脧垄碌脛脩颅禄路隆拢

碌芦脦脪脪虏虏禄脧毛脭脷脮芒脌茂路帽露篓脧脰陆帽碌脛禄玫卤脪脧碌脥鲁拢卢露脭脫脷脦脪脌麓脣碌拢卢脣霉脫脨碌脛脧碌脥鲁露录脫脨脌没脫毛卤脳隆拢脰脴脪陋碌脛脢脟禄卯脭脷脮芒脧碌脥鲁脰脨碌脛脠脣脙脟脪陋露庐碌脙脣眉碌脛脫脦脧路鹿忙脭貌拢卢虏禄脪陋脭脷虏禄脰陋虏禄戮玫脰脨卤禄露庐碌脙脳锚脗漏露麓碌脛脫脨脨脛脠脣赂酶虏脵脳脻脕脣隆拢
The rule
Weeks ago, when MAS stock price plunges, there's this new guy comes into the Investlah forum and asks:

"Bro, may I know how to open a stock trading account? I want to buy MAS. RM 1000 enough?"

Of course, we all laugh right. It's ridiculous.

But here's the point, why do you think that it's funny?

Who knows right. Maybe by some twist and turn MAS may recover and start earning again.
Then the guy may be crowned the next Warren Buffett or something, but you know, you know it deeply, something is not right.

In investing, there's no true answer in every question.
When your stock price rises it doesn't mean that you are right, neither when your stock earns money proves that you're good.

In fact no one can prove that one is better than another.
This is one giant casino that even the real casino wants to list their company there to get people betting on them.

What we're really looking here is to improve our chance.

We want to be the players that have the better chance of winning money and less chance to lose money.

So back to the question, why are you laughing so hard at that guy?

You must have known the answer, because his odds of winning is so small and the downside risk is so big.

People like to bet on things like this.

This is where all of us need to learn to be a better investor.

Discipline yourself to bet only on a good odd and small downside risk. Let others bet on the opposite of you.
In long term, you win.
The mind game
Reading and studying is a slow and hard process. It's not rewarding in a way that nobody gives you an A and tell you that you did a good job.

So how do you know that you improve?

That's when you start to see through others mind and you know that you have been that stage thinking the same thing but now you have a different or you think is a better opinion.

Of course, you shouldn't feel happy at all because you never know that at the same time there's another person looking at you and know about what you're bitching in your mind.

That's the real game of civilized homo sapiens. You gotta train your mind.
驴矛脌脰
陆帽脤矛脫脨赂枚鹿脣驴脥赂茫脕脣赂枚麓贸脦脷脕煤拢卢脙梅脙梅脢脟脧毛脪陋麓脫脨脗脡陆路脡脠楼鹿脜陆煤脠麓赂煤脦脪脙脟脣碌脪陋麓脫鹿脜陆煤路脡脌麓脨脗脡陆隆拢

碌楼驴陋脕脣拢卢脝卤露篓脕脣拢卢脣没虏脜禄脴鹿媒脡帽脌麓路垄脧脰脳脭录潞赂茫麓铆脕脣隆拢

路篓脗脡脡脧麓铆碌脛脠脣脳脭脠禄脢脟脣没拢卢脦脪麓贸驴脡脦脼脨猫脌铆脣没拢卢碌芦脮芒虏禄脢脟脦脪碌脛脭颅脭貌隆拢

脳枚脡煤脪芒碌脛碌脷脪禄脭颅脭貌戮脥脢脟虏禄脪陋驴梅脟庐隆拢碌芦脫脨脢卤潞貌脦脪脳脭录潞禄谩脟脛脟脛碌脴脧毛拢卢脝盲脢碌脙驴赂枚脌麓碌陆脦脪碌锚脌茂碌脛脠脣露录脙禄脫脨脦脪脛脟脙麓碌脴脨脪脭脣拢卢脦脪脫碌脫脨脕录潞脙碌脛陆脤脫媒拢卢脫碌脫脨脪禄赂枚潞脺潞脙碌脛脢脗脪碌隆拢脣盲脠禄脮芒脪禄脟脨驴麓脝冒脌麓脧帽脢脟脦脪脫娄碌脙碌脛拢卢碌芦脦脪脰陋碌脌脤脠脠么脦脪鲁枚脡煤脭脷脛脟赂枚录脪脥楼脫毛脛脟赂枚碌脴路陆拢卢禄貌脨铆脦脪脪虏禄谩潞脥脣没脙脟脪禄脩霉拢卢鲁脡脦陋脪禄赂枚脝庐脩贸鹿媒潞拢脛卤脡煤碌脛录录鹿陇隆拢

脌麓碌陆脦脪碌锚脌茂碌脛脠脣拢卢虏禄戮脥脢脟脦陋脕脣禄脴录脪脗冒拢驴

脣霉脪脭脦脪掳虏脦驴脣没脣碌虏禄脫脙碌拢脨脛拢卢脨脗脡陆脠楼鹿脜陆煤碌脛脝卤脣没脪脌脠禄脪陋脗貌隆拢露酶脮芒脪禄脮脜鹿脜陆煤禄脴脌麓脨脗脡陆碌脛脝卤脦脪禄谩掳茂脣没鲁脨碌拢脪禄脨漏路脩脫脙赂脛脠脮脝脷隆拢

脮芒脩霉脣没虏禄禄谩驴梅脤芦露脿脟庐拢卢露酶脦脪脭脷脮芒陆禄脪脳脰脨脪虏脰禄禄谩驴梅脪禄碌茫隆拢

脣没脤媒脕脣脦脪碌脛陆篓脪茅潞贸卤戮脌麓脗煤脕鲁碌脛脫脟鲁卯露录脡垄脕脣隆拢

脳卯潞贸脫脡脫脷脪禄脨漏录脹赂帽碌脛脪貌脣脴拢卢脦脪禄鹿掳脩脣眉禄脴脌麓碌脛脝卤脡媒录露脦陋Hi Flyer拢卢陆谩鹿没脣没脰禄禄鹿脕脣50脕茫录陋戮脥掳脩脛脟脮脜脗貌麓铆碌脛脝卤禄禄鲁脡禄脴脌麓碌脛脠脮脝脷拢卢禄鹿脤铆录脫20kg拢卢1F Hot Seat潞脥Priority Boarding拢卢录貌脰卤驴陋脨脛碌陆路颅脤矛隆拢

虏禄脰陋脭玫脙麓碌脴脣盲脠禄脦脪脢脟驴梅脕脣脟庐碌芦脦脪禄鹿脢脟戮玫碌脙脛陋脙没碌脛驴陋脨脛隆拢
脮芒脪禄路脻驴矛脌脰卤脠脝冒脦脪陆帽脤矛脣霉脫脨碌脛脢脮脠毛禄鹿脌麓碌脙脤陇脢碌脨漏隆拢

脫脨脨漏脢卤潞貌脠脣脗茂拢卢虏禄脢脟碌脙碌陆脕脣戮脥禄谩驴矛脌脰脨漏隆拢
驴矛脌脰脮芒露芦脦梅拢卢禄鹿脮忙碌脛潞脺脨镁隆拢
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Sunday, 30th November 2014
Huhu